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Approximating the Randomized Hitting Time Distribution of a Non-stationary Gamma Process

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  • Frenk, J.B.G.
  • Nicolai, R.P.

Abstract

The non-stationary gamma process is a non-decreasing stochastic process with independent increments. By this monotonic behavior this stochastic process serves as a natural candidate for modelling time-dependent phenomena such as degradation. In condition-based maintenance the first time such a process exceeds a random threshold is used as a model for the lifetime of a device or for the random time between two successive imperfect maintenance actions. Therefore there is a need to investigate in detail the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of this so-called randomized hitting time. We first relate the cdf of the (randomized) hitting time of a non-stationary gamma process to the cdf of a related hitting time of a stationary gamma process. Even for a stationary gamma process this cdf has in general no elementary formula and its evaluation is time-consuming. Hence two approximations are proposed in this paper and both have a clear probabilistic interpretation. Numerical experiments show that these approximations are easy to evaluate and their accuracy depends on the scale parameter of the non-stationary gamma process. Finally, we also consider some special cases of randomized hitting times for which it is possible to give an elementary formula for its cdf.

Suggested Citation

  • Frenk, J.B.G. & Nicolai, R.P., 2007. "Approximating the Randomized Hitting Time Distribution of a Non-stationary Gamma Process," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-031-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10149
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolai, R.P. & Frenk, J.B.G. & Dekker, R., 2007. "Modelling and optimizing imperfect maintenance of coatings on steel structures," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-24, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. van Noortwijk, J.M., 2009. "A survey of the application of gamma processes in maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-21.
    3. Dufresne, François & Gerber, Hans U. & Shiu, Elias S. W., 1991. "Risk Theory with the Gamma Process," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 177-192, November.
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    1. Nicolai, R.P. & Frenk, J.B.G. & Dekker, R., 2007. "Modelling and Optimizing Imperfect Maintenance of Coatings on Steel Structures," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-043-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Approximation; Condition based maintenance; First hitting time; Non-stationary gamma process; Random threshold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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