Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy
This paper examines the statistical properties of inflation in a sample of inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries. First, it analyses the time-varying volatility of a measure of the persistent component of inflation. Based on this measure, inflation-targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) have experienced a relatively more pronounced fall in the volatility of inflation than non-inflation-targeting countries (Austria, France, Germany, Japan and the United States). But it is hard to say whether inflation is more volatile in inflation-targeting or non-inflation-targeting countries. Second, it analyses whether inflation became easier to forecast after the introduction of inflation targeting. It finds that inflation became easier to forecast in both inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries; the improvement was greater for the former group but forecast errors remain smaller for the latter group.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rba.gov.au/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rba.gov.au/forms/rdp-order-form/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001.
"Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks,"
Working Paper Series
WP01-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-87, October.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," Working Papers 52, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008.
"Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S,"
NBER Working Papers
13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008.
"Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts,"
NBER Working Papers
14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001.
"Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts,"
Bank of England working papers
143, Bank of England.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
- Ivan Roberts, 2005. "Underlying Inflation: Concepts, Measurement and Performance," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006.
"Has Monetary Policy become more Efficient? a Cross-Country Analysis,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 408-433, 04.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franck Sédillot & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Implementing and interpreting indicators of core inflation: the case of France," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 473-497.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2009-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.