Essays on Credit Markets and Banking
This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to banking, credit markets and financial stability. Paper [I] presents a credit market model and finds, using an agent based modeling approach, that credit crunches have a tendency to occur; even when credit markets are almost entirely transparent in the absence of external shocks. We find evidence supporting the asset deterioration hypothesis and results that emphasize the importance of accurate firm quality estimates. In addition, we find that an increase in the debt’s time to maturity, homogenous expected default rates and a conservative lending approach, reduces the probability of a credit crunch. Thus, our results suggest some up till now partially overlooked components contributing to the financial stability of an economy. Paper [II] derives an econometric disequilibrium model for time series data. This is done by error correcting the supply of some good. The model separates between a continuously clearing market and a clearing market in the long-run such that we are able to obtain a novel test of clearing markets. We apply the model to the Swedish market for short-term business loans, and find that this market is characterized by a long-run nonmarket clearing equilibrium. Paper [III] studies the risk-return profile of centralized and decentralized banks. We address the conditions that favor a particular lending regime while acknowledging the effects on lending and returns caused by the course of the business cycle. To analyze these issues, we develop a model which incorporates two stylized facts; (i) banks in which lending decisions are decentralized tend to have a lower cost associated with screening potential borrowers and (ii) decentralized decision-making may generate inefficient outcomes because of lack of coordination. Simulations are used to compare the two banking regimes. Among the results, it is found that even though a bank group where decisions are decentralized may end up with a portfolio of loans which is (relatively) poorly diversified between regions, the ability to effectively screen potential borrowers may nevertheless give a decentralized bank a lower overall risk in the lending portfolio than when decisions are centralized. In Paper [IV], we argue that the practice used in the valuation of a portfolio of assets is important for the calculation of the Value at Risk. In particular, a seller seeking to liquidate a large portfolio may not face horizontal demand curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall measures and in an empirical illustration, we compare it to a competing approach. We find substantial differences.
|Date of creation:||28 Mar 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Dionne, Georges & Duchesne, Pierre & Pacurar, Maria, 2009.
"Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 777-792, December.
- Georges Dionne & Pierre Duchesne & Maria Pacurar, 2005. "Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) Using Tick-by-Tick Data with Application to the Toronto Stock Exchange," Cahiers de recherche 0533, CIRPEE.
- Turan G. Bali & Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2008. "Risk Measurement Performance of Alternative Distribution Functions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 411-437.
- Ernst, Cornelia & Stange, Sebastian & Kaserer, Christoph, 2012. "Measuring market liquidity risk - which model works best?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 35, pages 133-146.
- Ernst, Cornelia & Stange, Sebastian & Kaserer, Christoph, 2009. "Measuring market liquidity risk - which model works best?," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-01, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
- Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman, 2005. "Modelling High Frequency Financial Count Data," Umeå Economic Studies 656, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2004. "Modelling the Dynamics of Cross-Sectional Price Functions: an Econometric Analysis of the Bid and Ask Curves of an Automated Exchange," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe19, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2004. "Modelling the Dynamics of Cross-Sectional Price Functions: an Econometric Analysis of the Bid and Ask Curves of an Automated Exchange," Economics Papers 2004-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig, 2006. "How large is liquidity risk in an automated auction market?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 867-887, January.
- GIOT, Pierre & GRAMMIG, Joachim, 2002. "How large is liquidity risk in an automated auction market ?," CORE Discussion Papers 2002054, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig, 2002. "How large is liquidity risk in an automated auction market?," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-23, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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