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Assessing Forecast Performance in a VEC Model: An Empirical Examination

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  • Zacharias Bragoudakis

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory. We compare the estimated forecasting values of the endogenous variables to the real-historical values using a stochastic simulation analysis. The simulation results provide new evidence supporting the ability of the model to forecast not only one-period ahead but also many periods into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zacharias Bragoudakis, 2005. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a VEC Model: An Empirical Examination," Econometrics 0507013, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0507013
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 15
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    Keywords

    Cointegration; Forecasting; Simulation Analysis; Vector error- correction models;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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