Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process
In this article, we investigate conditional mean and variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. We are particularly interested in calculating the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to electricity prices and test spot prices forecasts until one month ahead forecast. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2007|
|Publication status:||Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2007.58 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2007|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00188264v2|
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