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Calculating Value-at-Risk for high-dimensional time series using a nonlinear random mapping model

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  • Zhang, Heng-Guo
  • Su, Chi-Wei
  • Song, Yan
  • Qiu, Shuqi
  • Xiao, Ran
  • Su, Fei

Abstract

In this study, we propose a non-linear random mapping model called GELM. The proposed model is based on a combination of the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), and can be used to calculate Value-at-Risk (VaR). Alternatively, the GELM model is a non-parametric GARCH-type model. Compared with conventional models, such as the GARCH models, ELM, and Support Vector Machine (SVM), the computational results confirm that the GELM model performs better in volatility forecasting and VaR calculation in terms of efficiency and accuracy. Thus, the GELM model can be an essential tool for risk management and stress testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Heng-Guo & Su, Chi-Wei & Song, Yan & Qiu, Shuqi & Xiao, Ran & Su, Fei, 2017. "Calculating Value-at-Risk for high-dimensional time series using a nonlinear random mapping model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-367.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:355-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C32; C45; C53; Extreme learning machine; High-dimensional space; Value-at-Risk; Random mapping; GARCH model; Time series;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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