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Development of Long-Term Scenarios for Healthcare Expenditure in Bulgaria


  • Grigor Sarijski
  • Rossitsa Rangelova


The study is connected with preparing of the country report for Bulgaria in the Work Package (WP) IX titled “Development of Scenarios for Health Expenditure in the Accession Economies” within the project “Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure” (AHEAD) under the Sixth Framework Programme of the European Commission. Eighteen research units from thirteen countries in Europe are included in this project; in WPIX are included: Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The main objective of the study is to explore the interrelations between the most important indicators related to the health care expenditure in Bulgaria (based on 2003) in a long-term perspective up to 2050 and using an intermediary control (target) year 2025. For this purpose a model of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) is applied. The study presents the basic features of the ILO model, specificity of the data used and the involved assumptions about the future behaviour of the different variables as well as the basic obtained results. Finally concluding remarks and policy implications are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigor Sarijski & Rossitsa Rangelova, 2007. "Development of Long-Term Scenarios for Healthcare Expenditure in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 27-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2007:i:2:p:27-57

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rangelova, Rossitsa, 2003. "Bio-demographic change and socio-economic trends in Bulgaria," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 413-428, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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