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Long-term Forecasting of the Expenses on Healthcare in Bulgaria, 2005-2050


  • Grigor Sariiski
  • Rossitsa Rangelova


The article studies the correlations between the most important demographic and economic indicators related to the expenses on healthcare in Bulgaria and through the application of a model of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) long-term forecasts on these expenses are received. The main characteristics and features of the model are presented, the diversity and the problems in the collection of the necessary input data are commented and after the realization of the model to the year 2050 the main results are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigor Sariiski & Rossitsa Rangelova, 2007. "Long-term Forecasting of the Expenses on Healthcare in Bulgaria, 2005-2050," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 31-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2007:i:4:p:31-52

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rangelova, Rossitsa, 2003. "Bio-demographic change and socio-economic trends in Bulgaria," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 413-428, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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