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The Accuracy of CBO’s Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2019

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

CBO reviews its baseline projections of federal revenues, outlays, and deficits at the end of every fiscal year and compares them with actual budgetary outcomes, after incorporating the effects of legislation that was enacted after the projections were prepared. CBO’s adjusted April 2018 projection of revenues in 2019 exceeded the actual amount by 0.8 percent, and CBO’s projection of outlays fell short by 0.1 percent. As a result, CBO’s projection of the deficit in 2019 was $31 billion less than the actual amount; that difference is equal to about 0.1 percent of gross domestic

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "The Accuracy of CBO’s Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2019," Reports 55927, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:55927
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-12/55927-CBO-Accuracy-of-Estimates.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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