Forecasting GDP growth in times of crisis: private sector forecasts versus statistical models
This paper examines the accuracy of short run forecasts of Dutch GDP growth by several linear statistical models and private sector analysts. We focus on the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the dot-com recession of 2001-2002. The dynamic factor model turns out to be the best model. Its forecast accuracy during the crisis deteriorates much less than that of the other linear models and hardly at all when backcasting and nowcasting. Moreover, the dynamic factor model beats the private sector forecasters at nowcasting. This finding suggests that adding judgement to a mechanical model may not improve short-term forecasting performance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
| Length: | |
| Date of creation: | Nov 2011 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:320 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/ More information through EDIRC
|
No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.