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German Pension Simulation: Arbeitspapier zur Methodik eines anwartschaftsbasierten Projektionsmodells der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung

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  • Seuffert, Stefan

Abstract

Die Debatte um die Rentenpolitik ist ein zentraler Bestandteil des politischen Diskurses in Deutschland und kommt nicht zur Ruhe. Eine Abschätzung der Auswirkungen der in diesem Rahmen vorgeschlagenen Reformen auf die zukünftige Einnahmen- und Ausgabenstruktur der Rentenversicherung kann anhand von Rentensimulationsmodellen geschehen. Die vorliegende Arbeit erläutert das konkrete methodische Vorgehen zur Simulation der Allgemeinen Rentenversicherung im Rahmen des vorgestellten Modells "German Pension Simulation"(GPS). Ziel der Rentensimulation ist insbesondere die Abschätzung der zukünftigen Einnahmen und Ausgaben sowie des zukünftigen Leistungs- und Beitragssatzniveaus der Allgemeinen Rentenversicherung. Die Projektion basiert unter anderem auf einer Bevölkerungs- und Arbeitsmarktprojektion, einer einfachen Lohnprojektion sowie einer Fortschreibung der aktuellen altersspezifischen Rentenansprüche der Versicherten und Rentner.

Suggested Citation

  • Seuffert, Stefan, 2020. "German Pension Simulation: Arbeitspapier zur Methodik eines anwartschaftsbasierten Projektionsmodells der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," FZG Discussion Papers 73, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:73
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werding, Martin & Läpple, Benjamin, 2020. "Finanzrisiken für den Bund durch die demographische Entwicklung in der Sozialversicherung [Financial risks for the Federal budget through the impact of demographic ageing on social insurance system," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 29, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(09), pages 23-30, May.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2015. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2015: Was kostet eine solidarische Lebensleistungsrente?," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 131, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    5. Christina Benita Wilke, 2004. "Ein Simulationsmodell des Rentenversicherungssystems: Konzeption und ausgewählte Anwendungen von MEA-PENSIM," MEA discussion paper series 04048, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rentenprojektion; gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Beitragssatz; Rentenniveau; Rentenwert;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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