IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf


  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Schult, Christoph
  • Zeddies, Götz


Im Koalitionsvertrag von CDU, CSU und SPD vom 7. Februar 2018 formuliert die neue Bundesregierung ihre rentenpolitischen Ziele. Diese sind vor dem Hintergrund der Bevölkerungsdynamik in Deutschland zu sehen. Ab dem Jahr 2020 wird sich die Altersstruktur der deutschen Bevölkerung deutlich verändern. In diesem Beitrag werden Simulationsrechnungen zu den Konsequenzen der rentenpolitischen Maßnahmen aus dem Koalitionsvertrag für die Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung mit Hilfe eines Simulationsmodells dargestellt. Die im Koalitionsvertrag vorgesehenen Leistungsausweitungen verursachen langfristig Kosten in Höhe von etwa 2 1/2 Prozentpunkten beim Beitragssatz zur gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung. Es werden ferner Maßnahmen - auch im Vergleich zu den Rentensystemen anderer Länder - diskutiert, mit denen der Anstieg des Beitragssatzes begrenzt werden könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph & Zeddies, Götz, 2018. "Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:52018

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2017. "Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag," IWH Online 2/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Werding, Martin, 2014. "Demographischer Wandel und öffentliche Finanzen: Langfrist-Projektionen 2014-2060 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Rentenreform-Pakets der Bundesregierung," Working Papers 01/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Was Änderungen beim Rentenniveau die Beitragszahler kosten," IWH Online 2/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    5. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters," IWH Online 3/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2018. "Kosten der Maßnahmen aus dem "Entwurf eines Gesetzes über Leistungsverbesserungen und Stabilisierung in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung"," IWH Online 3/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Raddatz, Guido, 2015. "Mehr Arbeit wagen," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 129, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    4. European Commission, 2018. "Tax Policies in the European Union: 2018 Survey," Taxation Survey 2018, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    5. Dolls, Mathias & Krolage, Carla, 2019. "The Effects of Early Retirement Incentives on Retirement Decisions," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203486, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Tomoaki Kotera, 2020. "Sustainability of Social Security in the Aging Economy from the Perspective of Improving Health," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    7. Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Kitao, Sagiri, 2021. "Labor Market Policies in a Dual Economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Emin Gahramanov & Xueli Tang, 2013. "Should We Refinance Unfunded Social Security?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 532-565, July.
    9. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    10. Emerson Patrick M. & Knabb Shawn D., 2020. "Education Spending, Fertility Shocks and Generational Consumption Risk," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Balazs Zelity, 2020. "Age Diversity and Aggregate Productivity," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2020-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    12. Acikgoz, Omer, 2013. "Transitional Dynamics and Long-run Optimal Taxation Under Incomplete Markets," MPRA Paper 50160, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Walter Krämer, 2016. "Die demografische Zeitbombe: Ursachen und Folgen der Kinderlosigkeit [The upcoming demographic disaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(4), pages 305-323, December.
    14. Zou, Tieding, 2017. "延迟退休的制约因素、政策效果与动态研究方法评价 [Restriction, Policy Effect and Dynamic Research Method to Delay Retirement]," MPRA Paper 85556, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    15. Schön, Matthias, 2019. "Demographic change and the German current account surplus," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203527, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Valentin Vogt & Jörg Althammer, 2016. "Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 465, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    19. Busch, Christopher & Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2020. "Should Germany have built a new wall? Macroeconomic lessons from the 2015-18 refugee wave," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-55.
    20. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2019. "Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung: Pause beim Ausgabenanstieg durch Alterung," Kiel Policy Brief 121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item


    ageing; demographic dynamics; public pension insurance; coalition agreement; public pension policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:52018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.