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Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Schult, Christoph
  • Zeddies, Götz

Abstract

Im Koalitionsvertrag von CDU, CSU und SPD vom 7. Februar 2018 formuliert die neue Bundesregierung ihre rentenpolitischen Ziele. Diese sind vor dem Hintergrund der Bevölkerungsdynamik in Deutschland zu sehen. Ab dem Jahr 2020 wird sich die Altersstruktur der deutschen Bevölkerung deutlich verändern. In diesem Beitrag werden Simulationsrechnungen zu den Konsequenzen der rentenpolitischen Maßnahmen aus dem Koalitionsvertrag für die Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung mit Hilfe eines Simulationsmodells dargestellt. Die im Koalitionsvertrag vorgesehenen Leistungsausweitungen verursachen langfristig Kosten in Höhe von etwa 2 1/2 Prozentpunkten beim Beitragssatz zur gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung. Es werden ferner Maßnahmen - auch im Vergleich zu den Rentensystemen anderer Länder - diskutiert, mit denen der Anstieg des Beitragssatzes begrenzt werden könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph & Zeddies, Götz, 2018. "Zu den rentenpolitischen Plänen im Koalitionsvertrag 2018 von CDU, CSU und SPD: Konsequenzen, Finanzierungsoptionen und Reformbedarf," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:52018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Zeddies, Götz, 2017. "Zur Stabilisierung von Rentenniveau und Rentenversicherungsbeitrag," IWH Online 2/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Werding, Martin, 2014. "Demographischer Wandel und öffentliche Finanzen: Langfrist-Projektionen 2014-2060 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Rentenreform-Pakets der Bundesregierung," Working Papers 01/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Was Änderungen beim Rentenniveau die Beitragszahler kosten," IWH Online 2/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    5. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch Erhöhung des Renteneintrittsalters," IWH Online 3/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing; demographic dynamics; public pension insurance; coalition agreement; public pension policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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