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Rates of Return of the German PAYG System - How they can be measured and how they will develop

  • Christina Benita Wilke

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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    With the adoption of the latest German pension reform in spring 2004 a public debate arose on whether rates of return for future pensioner cohorts were hreatened to become negative as a result of the new reform. In order to make the system sustainable, the reform had restricted future rises in the contribution rate at the expense of further decreases in pension levels. The paper contributes to this ongoing discussion by providing (1) a thorough discussion on the appropriate measurement of rates of return of the German public pension system and (2) projections of the rates of return for future pensioner cohorts based on the German public pension system after the 2004 reform. It is found that under realistic assumptions of future demographic and labour market developments, rates of return will be lower than for present retirees, but remain positive.

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    File URL: http://mea.mpisoc.mpg.de/uploads/user_mea_discussionpapers/tkc4bhmvdct9ahcz_97-2005_Korrektur.pdf
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    Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 05097.

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    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:05097
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    1. Glismann, Hans Hinrich & Horn, Ernst-Jürgen, 1998. "Renditen in der deutschen gesetzlichen Alterssicherung," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1998 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 78(8), pages 474-482.
    2. Axel Borsch-Supan & Barbara Berkel, 2003. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," NBER Working Papers 9913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Axel Boersch-Supan & Christina B. Wilke, 2004. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," NBER Working Papers 10525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Axel Börsch-Supan & Anette Reil-Held & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "Der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor und andere Formelmodifikationen zur langfristigen Stabilisierung des Beitragssatzes zur GRV," MEA discussion paper series 03030, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. Reinhard Hujer & Bernd Fitzenberger & Reinhold Schnabel & Thomas E. MaCurdy, 2001. "Testing for uniform wage trends in West-Germany: A cohort analysis using quantile regressions for censored data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 41-86.
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