IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interfacing a CGE Labour Market Model with the E3ME Multi-Sector Macroeconomic Model

Author

Listed:
  • G.A. Meagher
  • Felicity Pang
  • R.A. Wilson

Abstract

In recent years, a series of European labour market forecasts have been produced on behalf of, and have been published by, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP). These forecasts were generated using a modular modelling approach containing two major components: * a multi-sector macroeconomic model (E3ME) for 29 European countries, primarily developed and operated by Cambridge Econometrics, and * a labour market extension (WLME), primarily developed and operated by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick. The countries are treated as an integrated system in E3ME but the extension is applied to each country separately. Forecasts of employment by industry are determined by E3ME; forecasts of employment by occupation and qualification are determined by the extension. The two components rely mainly on time series econometric techniques to generate their forecasts. This paper describes how WLME can be replaced with an alternative extension (MLME) which incorporates a computable general equilibrium model. The CGE model has been developed primarily at the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University. Compared to WLME, MLME relies less on time series extrapolation and more on explicitly modelled economic behaviour. This approach introduces a range of behavioural and technical parameters which offer more scope for modelling developments in the labour market which impact on occupations and skills rather industries. Forecasts produced using the new E3ME-MLME system are reported for the United Kingdom, Greece and the Netherlands, and compared with the corresponding forecasts produced using the existing E3ME-WLME system. The focus of the comparison is on qualitative differences in the way the two sets of forecasts are to be interpreted. In particular, the sense in which explicit specification of technical change and economic behaviour (in the new system) can be substituted for time series extrapolation techniques (in the existing system) is carefully considered. The primary objective of the paper, therefore, is to demonstrate the empirical feasibility of the alternative methodology rather than to produce robust alternative forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • G.A. Meagher & Felicity Pang & R.A. Wilson, 2014. "Interfacing a CGE Labour Market Model with the E3ME Multi-Sector Macroeconomic Model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-248, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-248.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2014-09
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-248.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. G.A. Meagher & R.A. Wilson & Hector Pollitt, 2015. "The Europe 2020 Strategy and Skill Mismatch," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-259, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; CGE models; hybrid models; labour markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.