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Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios

  • Pesaran, M.H.
  • Zaffaroni, P.

This paper characterizes the asymptotic behaviour, as the number of assets gets arbitrarily large, of the portfolio weights for the class of tangency portfolios belonging to the Markowitz paradigm. It is as- sumed that the joint distribution of asset returns is characterized by a general factor model, with possibly heteroskedastic components. Under these conditions, we establish that a set of appealing properties, so far unnoticed, characterize traditional Markowitz portfolio trading strategies. First, we show that the tangency portfolios fully diversify the risk associated with the factor component of asset return innovations. Second, with respect to determination of the portfolio weights, the conditional distribution of the factors is of second-order importance as compared to the distribution of the factor loadings and that of the idiosyncratic components. Third, although of crucial importance in forecasting asset returns, current and lagged factors do not enter the limit portfolio returns. Our theoretical results also shed light on a number of issues discussed in the literature regarding the limiting properties of portfolio weights such as the diversi¯ability property and the number of dominant factors.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0813.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0813.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0813
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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  1. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Post-Print hal-00796743, HAL.
  3. Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "Funds, Factors, and Diversification in Arbitrage Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1305-23, September.
  4. Sentana, Enrique, 2004. "Factor representing portfolios in large asset markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 257-289, April.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
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  8. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Estimation Of Latent Generalised Arch Structures," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Post-Print peer-00796743, HAL.
  10. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
  11. Aguilar, Omar & West, Mike, 2000. "Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 338-57, July.
  12. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
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  14. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. " On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
  15. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1987. "The Relation between Mean-Variance Efficiency and Arbitrage Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 97-112, January.
  16. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr, 1984. " Some Results in the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1021-39, September.
  17. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November.
  18. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A. & Linton, Oliver, 2006. "The common and specific components of dynamic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 231-255, May.
  19. Green, R.C. & Hollifield, B., 1990. "When Will Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?," GSIA Working Papers 1990-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  20. Gary Chamberlain & Michael Rothschild, 1982. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 0996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
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