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On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Bessler
  • Shahriar Kibriya
  • Junyi Chen
  • Edwin Price

Abstract

This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Bessler & Shahriar Kibriya & Junyi Chen & Edwin Price, 2016. "On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 179-188, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:35:y:2016:i:2:p:179-188
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Musumba & Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2021. "Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Brück, Tilman & d'Errico, Marco, 2019. "Food security and violent conflict: Introduction to the special issue," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 167-171.
    3. Fatema, Naureen & Kibriya, Shahriar, "undated". "Givers of great dinners know few enemies: The impact of household food security on micro-level communal conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258482, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Fatema, Naureen & Kibriya,, Shahriar, 2022. "Givers of great dinners know few enemies: The impact of household food sufficiency and food sharing behavior on low-intensity, interhousehold conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322524, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2018. "The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 663-684.
    6. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    7. Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2018. "Givers of great dinners know few enemies: The impact of household food sufficiency and food sharing on low intensity interhousehold and community conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," HiCN Working Papers 267, Households in Conflict Network.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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