IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v35y2016i2p179-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Bessler
  • Shahriar Kibriya
  • Junyi Chen
  • Edwin Price

Abstract

This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Bessler & Shahriar Kibriya & Junyi Chen & Edwin Price, 2016. "On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 179-188, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:35:y:2016:i:2:p:179-188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali H. Abdelrahman, 1998. "Trends in Sudanese Cereal Production, Consumption, and Trade," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 98-wp198, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482.
    3. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
    4. Ali H. Abdelrahman, 1998. "Trends in Sudanese Cereal Production, Consumption, and Trade," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 98-wp198, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Kling, John L & Bessler, David A, 1989. "Calibration-Based Predictive Distributions: An Application of Prequential Analysis to Interest Rates, Money, Prices, and Output," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 477-499, October.
    6. Clionadh Raleigh & rew Linke & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen, 2010. "Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 651-660, September.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    8. David Bessler & Zijun Wang, 2012. "D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 295-314, August.
    9. Mkumbwa, Solomon S., 2011. "Cereal food commodities in Eastern Africa: consumption - production gap trends and projections for 2020," MPRA Paper 42113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark Musumba & Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2021. "Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Brück, Tilman & d'Errico, Marco, 2019. "Food security and violent conflict: Introduction to the special issue," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 167-171.
    3. Fatema, Naureen & Kibriya, Shahriar, 2017. "Givers of great dinners know few enemies: The impact of household food security on micro-level communal conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258482, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Fatema, Naureen & Kibriya,, Shahriar, 2022. "Givers of great dinners know few enemies: The impact of household food sufficiency and food sharing behavior on low-intensity, interhousehold conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322524, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2018. "The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 663-684.
    6. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    7. Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2018. "Givers of great dinners know few enemies: The impact of household food sufficiency and food sharing on low intensity interhousehold and community conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo," HiCN Working Papers 267, Households in Conflict Network.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2018. "The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 663-684.
    2. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2015. "A Causal Exploration of Conflict Events and Commodity Prices of Sudan," MPRA Paper 62461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    4. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David A. & Price, Edwin C., 2015. "A Causal Exploration of Food Price Shocks and Conflict in Sudan," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 202612, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    6. Salah M. Elawad & Elrashied E. Elkhiedir & Mahmoud A. Amassaib & Ahmed M. El Naim, 2017. "Government Policies and Food Security in Sudan (1970-2007): Incentives, Efficiencies and Comparative Advantage for Sorghum Producing in Mechanised Rain-fed Subsector," Academic Journal of Life Sciences, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(3), pages 12-17, 03-2017.
    7. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    8. Mkumbwa, Solomon S., 2011. "Cereal food commodities in Eastern Africa: consumption - production gap trends and projections for 2020," MPRA Paper 42113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohamed, Issam A.W., 2010. "Assessment of the Role of Agriculture in Sudan Economy," MPRA Paper 33119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Loperfido, Nicola, 2010. "A note on marginal and conditional independence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1695-1699, December.
    11. Bentes, Sonia R. & Menezes, Rui, 2013. "On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 58-66.
    12. Buiter, Willem H., 1986. "Granger Causality and Policy Ineffectiveness: A Rejoinder," CEPR Discussion Papers 126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Ghosh, sudeshna, 2017. "Education Attainment Forecasting and Economic Inequality United States," MPRA Paper 89712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Fali Huang & Myoung-Jae Lee, 2010. "Dynamic treatment effect analysis of TV effects on child cognitive development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 392-419.
    15. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sun, Wuqin, 2021. "Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
    18. Tuo Shi & Yuanman Hu & Miao Liu & Chunlin Li & Chuyi Zhang & Chong Liu, 2020. "How Do Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Industrialization Affect Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations? An Assessment in Liaoning Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-14, July.
    19. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brueck & Tony Muhumuza, 2016. "Activity Choices Of Internally Displaced Persons And Returnees: Quantitative Survey Evidence From Post-War Northern Uganda," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 329-347, October.
    20. Yang, Yung Y. & Yi, Myung Hoon, 2008. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Implication for policy in Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 827-840.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:35:y:2016:i:2:p:179-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.