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A money-based indicator for deflation risk

Author

Listed:
  • Gianni Amisano

    () (European Central Bank, DG Research)

  • Roberta Colavecchio

    () (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

  • Gabriel Fagan

    () (European Central Bank, DG Research)

Abstract

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a function of monetary variables. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the model with data from the early 1970s up to the present. Our analysis suggests that the risks of a Low inflation regime in the euro area have been increasing in the course of the last six quarters of the sample; moreover, money growth appears to play a significant role in the assessment of such risks. Evidence for Japan and the US, on the other hand, shows that the inclusion of a monetary indicator variable does not substantially change the assessment of the risk of a Low inflation regime in either of the two countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio & Gabriel Fagan, 2014. "A money-based indicator for deflation risk," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201403, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201403
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_3_2014.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    2. Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2014. "Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound, and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 7-54, June.
    3. Taimur Baig & Jörg Decressin & Tarhan Feyzioglu & Manmohan S. Kumar & Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation; Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 221, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013. "Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.
    5. Jörg Decressin & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Gauging Risks for Deflation," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/01, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money growth; deflation; inflation regimes; Markov Switching models; Bayesian inference;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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