A money-based indicator for deflation risk
We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a function of monetary variables. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the model with data from the early 1970s up to the present. Our analysis suggests that the risks of a Low inflation regime in the euro area have been increasing in the course of the last six quarters of the sample; moreover, money growth appears to play a significant role in the assessment of such risks. Evidence for Japan and the US, on the other hand, shows that the inclusion of a monetary indicator variable does not substantially change the assessment of the risk of a Low inflation regime in either of the two countries.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/dwp|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999.
"The Perils of Taylor Rules,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013.
"Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.
- Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2010. "Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach," Working Paper Series 1207, European Central Bank.
- Taimur Baig & JÃ¶rg Decressin & Tarhan Feyzioglu & Manmohan S. Kumar & Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 221, International Monetary Fund.
- Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2014.
"Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound, and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 7-54, June.
- Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2013. "Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessment," Working Paper Series 1582, European Central Bank.
- Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2013. "Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: A real-time assessment," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- JÃ¶rg Decressin & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Gauging Risks for Deflation," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/01, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ulrich Fritsche)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.