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Economic (in)stability under monetary targeting

  • Luca Sessa

    ()

    (Bank of Italy)

Monetary growth targeting is often seen as an effective way of supporting macroeconomic stability. We scrutinize this property by checking whether multiplicity of equilibria, in the form of local indeterminacy (LI), can be both a possible and a plausible outcome of a basic model with an exogenous money growth policy rule. We address the question in different versions of the Sidrauski-Brock-Calvo framework, which isolates the contribution of monetary non-neutralities and monetary targeting. In line with previous literature, real effects of money are found to be a necessary condition for LI: we identify a single pattern for their magnitude if they are to be sufficient too. While the most elementary setups are unable to plausibly generate large enough real effects, LI becomes significantly more likely as one realistically considers additional channels of transmission of monetary expansions onto the real economy: in particular, we show that models in which holding money is valuable to both households and firms may yield a LI outcome for empirically relevant parameterizations, therefore casting some doubt on the stabilizing properties of monetary monitoring.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 858.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_858_12
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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

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  1. Alessandro Calza & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "Sectoral money demand and the great disinflation in the US," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 785, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Lotti, Francesca & Marcucci, Juri, 2007. "Revisiting the empirical evidence on firms' money demand," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 51-73.
  3. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
  4. repec:fth:starer:9613 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
  6. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2012. "The effects of financial and real wealth on consumption: new evidence from OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 409-425, March.
  7. Koenig, Evan F, 1990. "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 399-425, May.
  8. Werner, Thomas & Lombardo, Giovanni & Kremer, Jana, 2003. "Money in a New-Keynesian model estimated with German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2011. "Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A Role for Money after All?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 211-229, 06.
  10. Juha Kilponen & Kai Leitemo, 2008. "Model Uncertainty and Delegation: A Case for Friedman's "k"-Percent Money Growth Rule?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 547-556, 03.
  11. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
  12. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2010. "Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach," Working Paper Series 1207, European Central Bank.
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2010. "Investigating M3 money demand in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-122, February.
  15. Jess Benhabib & Roger Farmer, 1998. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2055, David K. Levine.
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