The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.
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- Laurence M. Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011.
"Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession,"
NBER Working Papers
17044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Economics Working Paper Archive 580, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Sandeep Mazumder & Laurence M. Ball, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 11/121, International Monetary Fund.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010.
"Modeling Inflation After the Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
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