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Sentiment Risk Premia in the Cross-Section of Global Equity and Currency Returns

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  • Roland Fuess
  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Christian Koeppel

Abstract

This paper introduces a new sentiment-augmented asset pricing model in order to provide a comprehensive understanding of the role of non-fundamental risk factors. We find that news and social media search-based indicators that measure the aggregate investor sentiment are significantly related to excess returns across different asset classes and markets. Adding sentiment factors to both classical and more recent state-of-the-art pricing models leads to a significant increase in model performance. Following a two-stage Fama-MacBeth procedure, our modified pricing model obtains positive estimates of the risk premium for negative sentiment for global equity markets. We interpret them as measures of additional market uncertainty not captured by standard risk factors. Negative sentiment captures investors' fear, for which they demand an additional risk premium on sentiment-sensitive assets. Consequently, our empirical results contribute to the explanation of the cross-section of average, international excess equity and foreign exchange returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Fuess & Massimo Guidolin & Christian Koeppel, 2019. "Sentiment Risk Premia in the Cross-Section of Global Equity and Currency Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19116, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp19116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sentiment; Cross-section of international equity indices; Currency returns; Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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