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The Dynamic of COVID-19 New Infections under Different Stringent Policies

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  • Weshah Razzak

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North)

Abstract

We estimate an unrestricted VAR to summarize the dynamics of the stringency of policy and COVID-19 infections in New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, and the U.S. using the newly published Stringency Index by the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, Hale et al. (2020). The stringency of the policy responds positively to the number of new infections, and new infection cases respond negatively to the increase in the stringency of the policy. New Zealand and Australia followed slightly different stringent policies, but both managed the pandemic remarkably well. Denmark, Sweden, and the U.S. adopted different policies in terms of stringency and timing. Had Denmark, Sweden, and the U.S. adopted the New Zealand’s stringent policy they could have reduced the number of infection cases significantly, but not as much as in New Zealand because the stringency and timing of policy is endogenous and country-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Weshah Razzak, 2020. "The Dynamic of COVID-19 New Infections under Different Stringent Policies," Discussion Papers 2007, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:mas:dpaper:2007
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    File URL: https://econfin.massey.ac.nz/school/publications/discuss/2020/DP2007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling > Statistical Modelling

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Stringency Index; VAR; Dynamic Stochastic Projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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