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Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections

Author

Listed:
  • Gatt, William

Abstract

A short article which motivates the use of a fan chart in the communication of forecasts, with special emphasis on inflation forecasts. A fan chart for Maltese HICP inflation projections is built, using the history of forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gatt, William, 2014. "Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections," MPRA Paper 59603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59603
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59603/1/MPRA_paper_59603.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Blake, Andrew P., 1996. "Forecast Error Bounds By Stochastic Simulation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156, pages 72-79, May.
    3. Gatt, William, 2013. "Forecasting inflation at the Central Bank of Malta�," MPRA Paper 56876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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