A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s12599-020-00664-x
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Hurley, W. J. & Lior, D. U., 2002. "Combining expert judgment: On the performance of trimmed mean vote aggregation procedures in the presence of strategic voting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 142-147, July.
- Stephen C. Hora & Benjamin R. Fransen & Natasha Hawkins & Irving Susel, 2013. "Median Aggregation of Distribution Functions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 279-291, December.
- Mohamed N. Jouini & Robert T. Clemen, 1996. "Copula Models for Aggregating Expert Opinions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 444-457, June.
- James K. Hammitt & Yifan Zhang, 2013.
"Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data,"
Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, January.
- Hammitt, James K. & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods using Synthetic Data," TSE Working Papers 12-293, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Marc Keuschnigg & Christian Ganser, 2017. "Crowd Wisdom Relies on Agents’ Ability in Small Groups with a Voting Aggregation Rule," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 818-828, March.
- Kleijnen, Jack P. C., 1995.
"Verification and validation of simulation models,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 145-162, April.
- Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1992. "Verification and validation of simulation models," Other publications TiSEM cb477373-4711-405d-b712-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1992. "Verification and validation of simulation models," Research Memorandum FEW 542, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Jannis Beese & M. Kazem Haki & Stephan Aier & Robert Winter, 2019. "Simulation-Based Research in Information Systems," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 61(4), pages 503-521, August.
- Richard P. Larrick & Jack B. Soll, 2006. "Erratum--Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 309-310, February.
- Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1975. "Sales forecasting methods and accuracy," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 69-73, December.
- de Menezes, Lilian M. & W. Bunn, Derek & Taylor, James W., 2000. "Review of guidelines for the use of combined forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 190-204, January.
- David V. Budescu & Eva Chen, 2015. "Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 267-280, February.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- Petrovic, Dobrila & Roy, Rajat & Petrovic, Radivoj, 1998. "Modelling and simulation of a supply chain in an uncertain environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 299-309, September.
- Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
- Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
- Martin Bichler & Thomas Hess & Ramayya Krishnan & Peter Loos, 2014. "Emerging Research Areas in Business and Information Systems Engineering," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 6(1), pages 1-2, February.
- Eggstaff, Justin W. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2014. "The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 72-82.
- Alison Hubbard Ashton & Robert H. Ashton, 1985. "Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(12), pages 1499-1508, December.
- Robert Winter, 2009. "What in Fact is Fundamental Research in Business and Information Systems Engineering?," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 1(2), pages 192-199, April.
- Lee, Ju-Sung & Filatova, Tatiana & Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika & Hassani-Mahmooei, Behrooz & Stonedahl, Forrest & Lorscheid, Iris & Voinov, Alexey & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Parker, Dawn C., 2015.
"The complexities of agent-based modeling output analysis,"
EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(4).
- Ju-Sung Lee & Tatiana Filatova & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei & Forrest Stonedahl & Iris Lorscheid & Alexey Voinov & J. Gareth Polhill & Zhanli Sun & Dawn C. Parker, 2015. "The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(4), pages 1-4.
- Clemon, Robert T & Winkler, Robert L, 1986. "Combining Economic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 39-46, January.
- Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
- Yates, J. Frank & McDaniel, Linda S. & Brown, Eric S., 1991. "Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 60-79, June.
- Asa B. Palley & Jack B. Soll, 2019. "Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2291-2309, May.
- Edward D. Van Wesep, 2016. "The Quality of Expertise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 2937-2951, October.
- J. Eric Bickel, 2007. "Some Comparisons among Quadratic, Spherical, and Logarithmic Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 49-65, June.
- Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
- Eva Chen & David V. Budescu & Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth & Barbara A. Mellers & Philip E. Tetlock, 2016. "Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 13(2), pages 128-152, June.
- Iris Lorscheid & Bernd-Oliver Heine & Matthias Meyer, 2012. "Opening the ‘black box’ of simulations: increased transparency and effective communication through the systematic design of experiments," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 22-62, March.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:58-72 is not listed on IDEAS
- Clintin P. Davis-Stober & David V. Budescu & Stephen B. Broomell & Jason Dana, 2015. "The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 130-143.
- McKenzie, Craig R.M. & Liersch, Michael J. & Yaniv, Ilan, 2008. "Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 179-191, November.
- Richard P. Larrick & Jack B. Soll, 2006. "Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 111-127, January.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Ogbeide, Henry & Thomson, Mary Elizabeth & Gonul, Mustafa Sinan & Pollock, Andrew Castairs & Bhowmick, Sanjay & Bello, Abdullahi Usman, 2023. "The anti-money laundering risk assessment: A probabilistic approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
- Cem Peker, 2023. "Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(3), pages 467-501, April.
- Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
- Despoina Makariou & Pauline Barrieu & George Tzougas, 2021. "A Finite Mixture Modelling Perspective for Combining Experts’ Opinions with an Application to Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-25, June.
- David V. Budescu & Eva Chen, 2015. "Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 267-280, February.
- von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:395-411 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & Rook, Laurens, 2019. "Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-56.
- Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
- Ying Han & David Budescu, 2019. "A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(4), pages 395-411, July.
- Ville A. Satopää & Marat Salikhov & Philip E. Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2021. "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7599-7618, December.
- Christopher W. Karvetski & David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2020. "Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1040-1057, May.
- Satopää, Ville A. & Salikhov, Marat & Tetlock, Philip E. & Mellers, Barbara, 2023. "Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 470-485.
- Taylor, James W. & Taylor, Kathryn S., 2023. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 25-41.
- Asa B. Palley & Jack B. Soll, 2019. "Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2291-2309, May.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013.
"Forecasting Binary Outcomes,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106,
Elsevier.
- Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2012. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Discussion Papers 12-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
- Jaspersen, Johannes G., 2022. "Convex combinations in judgment aggregation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 780-794.
- Yuyu Fan & David V. Budescu & David Mandel & Mark Himmelstein, 2019. "Improving Accuracy by Coherence Weighting of Direct and Ratio Probability Judgments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 197-217, September.
- Tang, Ming & Liao, Huchang, 2024. "Group efficiency and individual fairness tradeoff in making wise decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
More about this item
Keywords
Simulation; Forecasting; Expert judgment; Expert aggregation; Wisdom of crowds;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:binfse:v:63:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s12599-020-00664-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.