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Forecasting e-commerce consumer returns: a systematic literature review

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  • David Karl

    (University of Bamberg)

Abstract

The substantial growth of e-commerce during the last years has led to a surge in consumer returns. Recently, research interest in consumer returns has grown steadily. The availability of vast customer data and advancements in machine learning opened up new avenues for returns forecasting. However, existing reviews predominantly took a broader perspective, focussing on reverse logistics and closed-loop supply chain management aspects. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing the state of research on returns forecasting in the realms of e-commerce. Methodologically, a systematic literature review was conducted, analyzing 25 relevant publications regarding methodology, required or employed data, significant predictors, and forecasting techniques, classifying them into several publication streams according to the papers’ main scope. Besides extending a taxonomy for machine learning in e-commerce, this review outlines avenues for future research. This comprehensive literature review contributes to several disciplines, from information systems to operations management and marketing research, and is the first to explore returns forecasting issues specifically from the e-commerce perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • David Karl, 2025. "Forecasting e-commerce consumer returns: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 75(3), pages 1-56, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:manrev:v:75:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11301-024-00436-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11301-024-00436-x
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    JEL classification:

    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - General

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