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A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach to Enhance Value Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Ron Bird

    (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia)

  • Richard Gerlach

    (Econometrics and Business Statistics, University of Sydney, Australia)

Abstract

Simple financial ratios such as book-to-market are often used to identify value stocks. This paper examines the extent to which fundamental accounting information can be used to better identify truly undervalued value stocks to enhance profit in a simple value strategy. Gibbs sampling and model averaging are used in a logistic regression setting, employing fundamental accounting information as explanatory variables, in the design of an implementable investment strategy applied to markets in the US, the UK and Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Bird & Richard Gerlach, 2006. "A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach to Enhance Value Investment," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 111-127, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:5:y:2006:i:2:p:111-127
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model uncertainty; slice sampler; valuation ratio; forecasting; value investing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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