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A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities

Author

Listed:
  • Alfred Michael Dockery

    (Curtin University)

  • Mark N. Harris

    (Curtin University)

  • Nicholas Holyoak

    (Flinders University)

  • Ranjodh B. Singh

    (Curtin University)

Abstract

A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Michael Dockery & Mark N. Harris & Nicholas Holyoak & Ranjodh B. Singh, 2021. "A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 37-61, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10109-020-00329-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-020-00329-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population modelling; Population projections; Cohort replacement; Regional and remote; Indigenous; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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