Value at Risk forecasting with the ARMA-GARCH family of models in times of increased volatility
The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2011|
|Date of revision:||Jul 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1967. "The Variation of Some Other Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 393-393.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989.
"Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility,"
89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2010. "The Use of GARCH Models in VaR Estimation," Working Papers 0048, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Costello, Alexandra & Asem, Ebenezer & Gardner, Eldon, 2008. "Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2154-2166, September.
- Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
- Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015.
"The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.