Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices
Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model.
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- Morana, Claudio, 2001. "A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-338, May.
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- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2003. "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2003028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Value at Risk by Quantile Regression," NBER Working Papers 7341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
- David Cabedo, J. & Moya, Ismael, 2003. "Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 239-253, May.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
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