Official Economic Forecasting: the Relevance of the Canadian Experience for Transitional Economies
Ministries of Economy (MoEs) in the transitional economies of the Former Soviet Union have been given the responsibility for economic forecasting. They have usually been created out of Ministries of Planning (MoPs). The required transformation from planning to forecasting, which requires a fundamental change in mindset and approaches, is discussed in the first part of this paper. In making this transformation from a MoP to a true MoE, there is much that official forecasters in transition economies can learn about economic forecasting from the experience of industrialized countries such as Canada. A brief overview of official economic forecasting as it is currently practised in Canada is provided in this paper. This includes econometric modelbased forecasting at the Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada and the recent prudent approach to fiscal forecasting initiated by the current Finance Minister to reduce the risk of unpleasant deficit surprises and thereby gain more credibility for fiscal policy. The adoption of the prudent approach underlines the perceived weakness of economic forecasting even in advanced industrialized economies. A summary of the advantages of forecasting with macroeconomic models based on the Canadian experience is presented in the paper.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 1996|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordan, 1968. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 11-23.
- Ronald G. Bodkin & Lawrence R. Klein & Kanta Marwah, 1991. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 51.
- John F. Helliwell & Tom Maxwell & H. E. L. Waslander, 1979. "Comparing the Dynamics of Canadian Macro Models," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 181-194, May.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25285. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.