Modelling the Load Curve of Aggregate Electricity Consumption Using Principal Components
Since oil is a non-renewable resource with a high environmental impact, and its most common use is to produce combustibles for electricity, reliable methods for modelling electricity consumption can contribute to a more rational employment of this hydrocarbon fuel. In this paper we apply the Principal Components (PC) method to modelling the load curves of Italy, France and Greece on hourly data of aggregate electricity consumption. The empirical results obtained with the PC approach are compared with those produced by the Fourier and constrained smoothing spline estimators. The PC method represents a much simpler and attractive alternative to modelling electricity consumption since it is extremely easy to compute, it significantly reduces the number of variables to be considered, and generally increases the accuracy of electricity consumption forecasts. As an additional advantage, the PC method is able to accommodate relevant exogenous variables such as daily temperature and environmental factors, and it is extremely versatile in computing out-of-sample forecasts.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan|
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert & Ramanathan, Ramu & Andersen, Allan, 1979. "Residential load curves and time-of-day pricing : An econometric analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 13-32, January.
- Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
- RODRIGUEZ-POO , Juan M., 1992. "Estimating the Time-of-Day Electricity Demand by Using the Constrained Smoothing Spline Estimator," CORE Discussion Papers 1992054, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hendricks, Wallace & Koenker, Roger & Poirier, Dale J., 1979. "Residential demand for electricity : An econometric approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 33-57, January.
- Juan RodrÎguez-Poo, 2000. "Constrained nonparametric regression analysis of load curves," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 229-246.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.