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Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts

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Abstract

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities of individual and means of non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves measurement error. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach using both individuals and mean forecasts.

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  • Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Working Papers in Economics 11/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/16
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    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/1116.pdf
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    1. Eroglu, Cuneyt & Croxton, Keely L., 2010. "Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 116-133, January.
    2. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2009. "Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 334-346, August.
    3. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
    4. Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495, April.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1066-1075, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xun, 2018. "How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 506-513.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Individual forecasts; mean forecasts; efficient estimation; generated regressors; replicable forecasts; non-replicable forecasts; expert intuition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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