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Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting

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  • Philip Hans Franses
  • Michael McAleer
  • Rianne Legerstee

Abstract

Expert opinion is an opinion given by an expert, and it can have significant value in forecasting key policy variables in economics and finance. Expert forecasts can either be expert opinions, or forecasts based on an econometric model. An expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is replicable, and can be defined as a replicable expert forecast (REF), whereas an expert opinion that is not based on an econometric model can be defined as a non-replicable expert forecast (Non-REF). Both replicable and non-replicable expert forecasts may be made available by an expert regarding a policy variable of interest. In this paper we develop a model to generate replicable expert forecasts, and compare REF with Non-REF. A method is presented to compare REF and Non-REF using efficient estimation methods, and a direct test of expertise on expert opinion is given. The latter serves the purpose of investigating whether expert adjustment improves the model-based forecasts. Illustrations for forecasting pharmaceutical SKUs, where the econometric model is of (variations of) the ARIMA type, show the relevance of the new methodology proposed in the paper. In particular, experts possess significant expertise, and expert forecasts are significant in explaining actual sales.
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  • Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2009. "Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 334-346.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:63:y:2009:i:3:p:334-346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 195-208, April.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Evaluating Combined Non-Replicable Forecasts," KIER Working Papers 744, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
    4. Chang, Chia Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & Mcaleer, Michael, 2012. "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 22-43, September.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2013. "What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison With Isi Research Impact In Finance," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-30.
    6. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J. & Legerstee, R., 2008. "Does the ROMC have expertise, and can it forecast?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Are forecast updates progressive?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 9-18.
    8. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2012. "What do Experts Know About Ranking Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2012-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Decomposing bias in expert forecast," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-26, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    10. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J. & Legerstee, R., 2010. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecast: A Review of Some Recent Developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    11. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1066-1075, October.
    13. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Combining Non-Replicable Forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-8.
    15. Chang, C-L. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "How Accurate are Government Forecast of Economic Fundamentals?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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