Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting
Expert opinion is an opinion given by an expert, and it can have significant value in forecasting key policy variables in economics and finance. Expert forecasts can either be expert opinions, or forecasts based on an econometric model. An expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is replicable, and can be defined as a replicable expert forecast (REF), whereas an expert opinion that is not based on an econometric model can be defined as a non-replicable expert forecast (Non-REF). Both replicable and non-replicable expert forecasts may be made available by an expert regarding a policy variable of interest. In this paper we develop a model to generate replicable expert forecasts, and compare REF with Non-REF. A method is presented to compare REF and Non-REF using efficient estimation methods, and a direct test of expertise on expert opinion is given. The latter serves the purpose of investigating whether expert adjustment improves the model-based forecasts. Illustrations for forecasting pharmaceutical SKUs, where the econometric model is of (variations of) the ARIMA type, show the relevance of the new methodology proposed in the paper. In particular, experts possess significant expertise, and expert forecasts are significant in explaining actual sales.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 63 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0039-0402|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0039-0402|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mcleer, M. & Mckenzie, C.R., 1989. "When Are Two Step Estimators Efficient?," Papers 179, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008.
"The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 230-235, May.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," NBER Working Papers 13751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franses, Philip Hans, 2008. "Merging models and experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-33.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity," Working Papers wp04-05, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- McAleer, Michael, 1995. "The significance of testing empirical non-nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 149-171, May.
- McAleer, Michael, 1992. "Efficient Estimation: The Rao-Zyskind Condition, Kruskal's Theorem and Ordinary Least Squares," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(200), pages 65-72, March.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1172-1184, December.
- Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 85-99.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2009. "Properties of expert adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-47.
- Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
- Oxley, Les & McAleer, Michael, 1993. " Econometric Issues in Macroeconomic Models with Generated Regressors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
- Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1996. "Adjustment of forecasts with model consistent expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 163-170, March.
- Fiebig, Denzil G. & McAleer, Michael & Bartels, Robert, 1992. "Properties of ordinary least squares estimators in regression models with nonspherical disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 321-334.
- Suhejla Hoti & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2006. "Intellectual Property Litigation Activity In The Usa," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 715-729, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:63:y:2009:i:3:p:334-346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.