Merging models and experts
It is argued that for specific forecast settings there must exist an optimally-sized model with forecasts that only need occasional adjustments by experts. The argument is built on recent evidence on the interaction between models and experts. A consequence of this is that the future research agenda should involve more interaction between researchers in model-based forecasting and those who are engaged in judgemental forecasting research.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, .
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
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- Henk Kranendonk & Debby Lanser & P.H. Franses, 2007.
"On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts,"
CPB Discussion Paper
92, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Legerstee, R., 2007. "Does experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts contribute to forecast quality?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
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