Merging models and experts
It is argued that for specific forecast settings there must exist an optimally-sized model with forecasts that only need occasional adjustments by experts. The argument is built on recent evidence on the interaction between models and experts. A consequence of this is that the future research agenda should involve more interaction between researchers in model-based forecasting and those who are engaged in judgemental forecasting research.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007.
"On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Legerstee, R., 2007. "Does experts' adjustment to model-based forecasts contribute to forecast quality?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, .
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:31-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.