Inflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators
In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment.We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison to a standard Phillips curve approach. Because the forecast performance is particularly good for longer horizons, we also compare our indicators to traditional measures of core inflation.Here, the sentiment indicators outperform the weighted median and show a similar forecasting power as a trimmed mean. Thus, they offer a convincing alternative to traditional core inflation measures.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009.
"Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 669-705.
- Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2006. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," Working Papers 06-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 0638, European Central Bank.
- Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2006. "Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany," DQE Working Papers 5, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.