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Forecasting the Maximum Compensation Offer in the Automobile BI Claims Negotiation Process

Author

Listed:
  • Mercedes Ayuso

    (University of Barcelona)

  • Miguel Santolino

    (University of Barcelona)

Abstract

Most motor bodily injury claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process (reservation price). Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Residual dependence occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Groupwise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercedes Ayuso & Miguel Santolino, 2012. "Forecasting the Maximum Compensation Offer in the Automobile BI Claims Negotiation Process," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 663-676, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:21:y:2012:i:5:d:10.1007_s10726-011-9241-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10726-011-9241-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayuso, Mercedes & Santolino, Miguel, 2007. "Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 71-83, July.
    2. Nelson, William Jr., 2002. "Equity or intention: it is the thought that counts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 423-430, August.
    3. David S. Loughran, 2005. "Deterring Fraud: The Role of General Damage Awards in Automobile Insurance Settlements," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 551-575, December.
    4. Crocker, Keith J & Tennyson, Sharon, 2002. "Insurance Fraud and Optimal Claims Settlement Strategies," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 469-507, October.
    5. Viaene, Stijn & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillen, Montserrat & Van Gheel, Dirk & Dedene, Guido, 2007. "Strategies for detecting fraudulent claims in the automobile insurance industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 565-583, January.
    6. Henrik Kristensen & Tommy Gärling, 2000. "Anchor Points, Reference Points, and Counteroffers in Negotiations," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 9(6), pages 493-505, November.
    7. Richard Lewis, 2006. "How Important are Insurers in Compensating Claims for Personal Injury in the U.K.?*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 31(2), pages 323-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision support systems; Multivariate statistics; Bodily injury claims compensation; Negotiation process; Generalized confidence intervals; Reserve price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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