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Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links

Author

Listed:
  • Burcu Erik
  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi
  • Dubravko Mihaljek
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) have found a place in global conjunctural analysis and quarterly GDP nowcasting, serving as reliable concurrent indicators of real economic activity. They also closely mirror changes in equity prices and corporate bond spreads. More surprisingly, PMIs react to changes in the dollar index, and do so in a way that runs counter to a trade competitiveness explanation. We show that the financial variables help predict PMIs and explain a significant proportion of their variation. The two seem to be linked through shifts in macroeconomic sentiment and global financing conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Burcu Erik & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1909g
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
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    8. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2023. "Higher frequency activity indicators and global bond portfolio adjustments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(4), pages 943-964, November.
    2. Angelos Kanas & Panagiotis D. Zervopoulos, 2021. "Systemic risk, real GDP growth, and sentiment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 461-485, August.
    3. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn, 2023. "Networks, interconnectedness, and interbank information asymmetry," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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