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Exchange Rates and the Working Capital Channel of Trade Fluctuations

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  • Valentina Bruno
  • Se-Jik Kim
  • Hyun Shin

Abstract

Exchange rates affect the economy not only through the competitiveness of exports but also through a financial channel. The financial channel goes in the opposite direction to the competitiveness channel in that a stronger currency goes hand-in-hand with more buoyant real economic activity on the back of faster credit growth and cross-border banking flows. The effect is particularly marked for emerging market economies for the broad dollar index: a stronger dollar may actually lead to a decline in trade volumes of an emerging market economy. Our paper develops a stylized model that generates such an effect and finds supporting evidence in a firm-level investigation of manufacturing firms from Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bruno & Se-Jik Kim & Hyun Shin, 2018. "Exchange Rates and the Working Capital Channel of Trade Fluctuations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 531-536, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:108:y:2018:p:531-36
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20181063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gita Gopinath & Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 677-719, March.
    2. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2020. "Financial constraints and inflation in Latin America: The impacts of bond financing and depreciations on supply inflation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 379-397.
    2. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Laura Alfaro & Ester Faia & Ruth Judson & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2020. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 8249, CESifo.
    4. Malamud, Semyon & Eren, Egemen, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 13391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Dollar and Exports," BIS Working Papers 819, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    7. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2022. "Dominant currency debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 571-589.
    8. Frederic Boissay & Nikhil Patel & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Trade credit, trade finance, and the Covid-19 Crisis," BIS Bulletins 24, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Burcu Erik & Marco J. Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Real Economic Activity: An Evolving Relationship," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 529-534, May.
    10. Boris Hofmann & Taejin Park, 2020. "The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    11. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Patricia Amalia MERCEA (HANDRO), 2020. "Exchange Rate Regime And Macroeconomic Stability. A Literature Survey," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 5(1), pages 67-71.
    13. Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson, 2018. "Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2018/202, International Monetary Fund.
    14. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Kenneth H. Kang & Changyong Rhee, 2021. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 361-394, April.
    16. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Faria, João Ricardo & Rodrigues, Mauro, 2023. "Does monetary policy impact CO2 emissions? A GVAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. Yavuz Arslan & Juan Contreras & Nikhil Patel & Chang Shu, 2018. "Globalisation and deglobalisation in emerging market economies: facts and trends," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 1-25, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Raphael Auer & Bruce Muneaki Iwadate & Andreas Schrimpf & Alexander F. Wagner, 2022. "Global Production Linkages and Stock Market Comovement," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-18, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome & Olarewaju, Favour, 2020. "Broad Dollar Shocks and Economic Activity in Trade-Heavy Countries: The Role of Government Size," MPRA Paper 100944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Samer Shousha, 2019. "The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System," International Finance Discussion Papers 1258, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Burcu Erik & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    22. Helena Glebocki Keefe, 2020. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation targeting monetary policy in emerging and advanced economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 417-433, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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