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Exchange Rates and the Working Capital Channel of Trade Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Bruno
  • Se-Jik Kim
  • Hyun Shin

Abstract

Exchange rates affect the economy not only through the competitiveness of exports but also through a financial channel. The financial channel goes in the opposite direction to the competitiveness channel in that a stronger currency goes hand-in-hand with more buoyant real economic activity on the back of faster credit growth and cross-border banking flows. The effect is particularly marked for emerging market economies for the broad dollar index: a stronger dollar may actually lead to a decline in trade volumes of an emerging market economy. Our paper develops a stylized model that generates such an effect and finds supporting evidence in a firm-level investigation of manufacturing firms from Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bruno & Se-Jik Kim & Hyun Shin, 2018. "Exchange Rates and the Working Capital Channel of Trade Fluctuations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 531-536, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:108:y:2018:p:531-36
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20181063
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    Cited by:

    1. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2020. "Financial constraints and inflation in Latin America: The impacts of bond financing and depreciations on supply inflation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 379-397.
    2. Malamud, Semyon & Eren, Egemen, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 13391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Laura Alfaro & Ester Faia & Ruth Judson & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2020. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 8249, CESifo.
    4. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Faria, João Ricardo & Rodrigues, Mauro, 2023. "Does monetary policy impact CO2 emissions? A GVAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Hardy, Bryan & Saffie, Felipe, 2024. "From carry trades to trade credit: Financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Se-Jik Kim & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Theory of supply chains: a working capital approach," BIS Working Papers 1070, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Yavuz Arslan & Juan Contreras & Nikhil Patel & Chang Shu, 2018. "Globalisation and deglobalisation in emerging market economies: facts and trends," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 1-25, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome & Olarewaju, Favour, 2020. "Broad Dollar Shocks and Economic Activity in Trade-Heavy Countries: The Role of Government Size," MPRA Paper 100944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    11. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song, 2023. "Dollar and Exports," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(8), pages 2963-2996.
    12. Raphael Auer & Bruce Muneaki Iwadate & Andreas Schrimpf & Alexander F. Wagner, 2022. "Global Production Linkages and Stock Market Comovement," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-18, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Samer Shousha, 2019. "The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System," International Finance Discussion Papers 1258, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2022. "Dominant currency debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 571-589.
    15. Frederic Boissay & Nikhil Patel & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Trade credit, trade finance, and the Covid-19 Crisis," BIS Bulletins 24, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Burcu Erik & Marco J. Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Real Economic Activity: An Evolving Relationship," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 529-534, May.
    17. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Kenneth H. Kang & Changyong Rhee, 2021. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 361-394, April.
    18. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Boris Hofmann & Taejin Park, 2020. "The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    20. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie & Ina Simonovska, 2024. "Trade credit and exchange rate risk pass through," BIS Working Papers 1216, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Burcu Erik & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    22. Patricia Amalia MERCEA (HANDRO), 2020. "Exchange Rate Regime And Macroeconomic Stability. A Literature Survey," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 5(1), pages 67-71.
    23. Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson, 2018. "Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2018/202, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Helena Glebocki Keefe, 2020. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation targeting monetary policy in emerging and advanced economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 417-433, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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