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The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor

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  • Boris Hofmann
  • Taejin Park

Abstract

US dollar appreciation is associated with a darkening of the economic outlook for emerging market economies (EMEs). Using data from 21 EMEs, we find that a 1 percentage point (ppt) appreciation shock to the dollar against a broad basket of currencies dampens the growth outlook by over 0.3 ppt and growth-at-risk (the lowest 5% of growth outcomes) by 0.6 ppt. Dollar appreciation adversely affects investment growth-at-risk in particular and even export growth-at-risk, indicating that global financial conditions play a key role. Indeed, the negative impact is significantly larger in countries with high dollar debt or high foreign presence in local currency bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Taejin Park, 2020. "The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2012b
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Constantinos Alexiou & Sofoklis Vogiazas & Colston Kane, 2023. "The Impact Of Us Elections On The Dollar’S Exchange Rate," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(238), pages 7-39, July – Se.
    2. Panizza, Ugo, 2024. "Bank ownership around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Gent Bajraj & Jorge Lorca & Juan M. Wlasiuk, 2022. "On Foreign Drivers of EMEs Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 951, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Goswami, Mangal & Pontines, Victor & Mohammed, Yassier, 2023. "Portfolio capital flows and the US dollar exchange rate: Viewed from the lens of time and frequency dynamics of connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. repec:ocp:rpecon:pp_24-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Boris Hofmann & Taejin Park & Albert Pierres Tejada, 2023. "Commodity prices, the dollar and stagflation risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Canuto Otaviano, 2023. "Capital flows and emerging market economies since the global financial crisis," Chapters, in: Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan (ed.), Foreign Exchange Constraint and Developing Economies, chapter 10, pages 208-222, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Macro-Financial Stability Frameworks: Experience and Challenges," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Claudio Borio & Edward S Robinson & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY POLICY IN A GLOBALISED WORLD: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Selected Papers from the Asian Monetary Policy Forum 202, chapter 3, pages 2-49, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Apaitan, Tosapol & Manopimoke, Pym & Nookhwun, Nuwat & Pattararangrong, Jettawat, 2024. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Thailand: Evidence from micro data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. repec:ocp:ppaper:pp24-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Otaviano Canuto, 2021. "The Metamorphosis of Finance and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 2109, Policy Center for the New South.
    13. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Valentina Bruno & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Dollar beta and stock returns," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-10.
    15. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Risk capacity, portfolio choice and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 1031, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Steenkamp, Daan & Jaarsveld, Rossouw van, 2025. "Risk and return spillovers among developed and emerging market currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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