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Dollar and Exports

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Listed:
  • Bruno, Valentina
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

The strength of the US dollar has attributes of a barometer of dollar credit conditions, whereby a stronger dollar is associated with tighter dollar credit conditions. Using finely disaggregated data on export shipments, we examine how dollar strength impacts exports through the availability of dollar financing for working capital - an issue of importance due to the greater working capital needs for exports arising from longer supply chains and greater delay in receiving payments. We find that exporters who are reliant on dollar-funded bank credit suffer a decline in exports, and that this decline is larger than any decline in domestic sales. Our findings shed light on the broad dollar index as a global financial factor with real effects on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2021. "Dollar and Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 16311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16311
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    2. Burcu Erik & Marco J. Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Real Economic Activity: An Evolving Relationship," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 529-534, May.
    3. Ryan Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2022. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 296-312, December.
    4. Janus, Jakub, 2022. "Cross-border flights to safe assets in bond markets: evidence from emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 113875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," BIS Working Papers 897, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mikael Juselius & Philip Wooldridge & Dora Xia, 2025. "Financial channel implications of a weaker dollar for emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Anaya Longaric, Pablo, 2022. "Foreign currency exposure and the financial channel of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2739, European Central Bank.
    8. Carlos Cantù & Catherine Casanova & Rodrigo Alfaro & Fernando Chertman & Gerald Cisneros & Toni dos Santos & Roberto Lobato & Calixto Lopez & Facundo Luna & David Moreno & Miguel Sarmiento & Rafael Ni, 2022. "How capital inflows translate into new bank lending: tracing the mechanism in Latin America," BIS Working Papers 1051, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Wang, Mengjiao & Liu, Jianxu & Yang, Bing, 2024. "Does the strength of the US dollar affect the interdependence among currency exchange rates of RCEP and CPTPP countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    10. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome & Olarewaju, Favour, 2020. "Broad Dollar Shocks and Economic Activity in Trade-Heavy Countries: The Role of Government Size," MPRA Paper 100944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yusuf Emre Akgündüz & Salih Fendoğlu, 2022. "Export Prices, Imported Inputs, and Domestic Supply Networks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 383-419, September.
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios & Hildebrand, Sebastian & Ricci, Martino & Schumann, Ben & van Roye, Björn, 2021. "ECB-Global 2.0: a global macroeconomic model with dominant-currency pricing, tariffs and trade diversion," Working Paper Series 2530, European Central Bank.
    13. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Firuz Kamalov & Osama Atayah & Dalia Hemdan & Olga Starkova, 2024. "Long-Run Trade Relationship between the U.S. and Canada: The Case of the Canadian Dollar with the U.S. Dollar," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-21, September.
    15. Bahaj, Saleem, 2020. "Jumpstarting an International Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 14793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Miguel Sarmiento, 2022. "Sudden Yield Reversals and Financial Intermediation in Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 1210, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Beck, Thorsten & Bednarek, Peter & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2021. "Exchange rate depreciations and local business cycles: The role of bank loan supply," Discussion Papers 52/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Eduardo Borensztein & Lei Sandy Ye, 2021. "Corporate debt overhang and investment in emerging economies: Firm‐level evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 18-39, April.
    21. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Serra Pelin & Jon Turek, 2024. "The Dollar’s Imperial Circle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 653-700, June.
    23. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    24. Myoung Shik Choi, 2021. "Major exchange rates and value-added exports," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(298), pages 179-205.
    25. Avdjiev, Stefan & Binder, Stephan & Sousa, Ricardo, 2021. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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