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Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

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  • Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques
  • Mr. Gaston Gelos
  • Mr. Thomas Harjes
  • Ms. Ratna Sahay
  • Yi Xue

Abstract

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/035
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    2. Jingwen Huo & Jing Meng & Heran Zheng & Priti Parikh & Dabo Guan, 2023. "Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
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    7. Mr. David J Hofman & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Pragyan Deb & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Umang Rawat & Itaru Yamamoto, 2020. "Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 2020/009, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Fayyaz Hussain & Mehak Ejaz, 2022. "Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Channel in Monetary Policy Transmission in Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 45-67.
    9. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; exchange rate; inflation targeting; interest rate; monetary policy shock; reaction function; monetary policy transmission; exchange rate channel; interest-rate-based monetary policy; interest rate shock; unit monetary policy shock; nominal exchange rate; transmission mechanism; monetary policy rate; dummy variable; IT framework; Financial sector development; Exchange rates; Monetary policy frameworks; Central bank policy rate; Consumer price indexes; Global; Africa; Monetary Policy; Emerging markets; Financial structure; monetary policy framework; monetary policy channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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