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Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: loan applications, rates, and real effects

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Recent studies of monetary policy in developing countries document a weak bank lending channel based on aggregate data. In this paper, we bring new evidence using Uganda’s supervisory credit register, with microdata on loan applications, volumes and rates, coupled with unanticipated variation in monetary policy. We show that a monetary contraction reduces bank credit supply—increasing loan application rejections and tightening loan volume and rates—especially for banks with more leverage and sovereign debt exposure. There are associated spillovers on inflation and economic activity—including construction permits and trade—and even social unrest.

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  • Charles Abuka & Ronnie K. Alinda & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: loan applications, rates, and real effects," Economics Working Papers 1703, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1703
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    7. Ebenezer Olamide & Andrew Maredza & Kanayo Ogujiuba, 2022. "Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Aulia Rayna ASMADINA & Ariodillah HIDAYAT & Imam ASNGARI & Sri ANDAIYANI, 2021. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and Inflation in Indonesia," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 53(2(62)), pages 27-39, December.
    9. Rashid, Abdul & Hassan, M. Kabir & Shah, Muhammad Abdul Rehman, 2020. "On the role of Islamic and conventional banks in the monetary policy transmission in Malaysia: Do size and liquidity matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Vinogradov, Dmitri & Makhlouf, Yousef, 2021. "Two faces of financial systems: Provision of services versus shock-smoothing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    12. Kebede, Jeleta & Selvanathan, Saroja & Naranpanawa, Athula, 2021. "Foreign bank presence, institutional quality, and financial inclusion: Evidence from Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2020. "Cross-Border Spillovers in Foreign Currency Credit," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2002, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    14. Jean Christine A. Armas, 2021. "Is the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Evident in the Philippines? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 246-269, September.
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    16. Luigi Oddo & Mile Bosnjak, 2021. "A comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels in the U.S: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(38), pages 4448-4463, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank lending channel of monetary policy; bank credit; real effects; credit register; developing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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