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Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: loan applications, rates, and real effects

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Recent studies of monetary policy in developing countries document a weak bank lending channel based on aggregate data. In this paper, we bring new evidence using Uganda’s supervisory credit register, with microdata on loan applications, volumes and rates, coupled with unanticipated variation in monetary policy. We show that a monetary contraction reduces bank credit supply—increasing loan application rejections and tightening loan volume and rates—especially for banks with more leverage and sovereign debt exposure. There are associated spillovers on inflation and economic activity—including construction permits and trade—and even social unrest.

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  • Charles Abuka & Ronnie K. Alinda & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: loan applications, rates, and real effects," Economics Working Papers 1703, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1703
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rashid, Abdul & Hassan, M. Kabir & Shah, Muhammad Abdul Rehman, 2020. "On the role of Islamic and conventional banks in the monetary policy transmission in Malaysia: Do size and liquidity matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Whelsy BOUNGOU, 2020. "Empirical Evidence of the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy under Negative Interest Rates," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    4. Arango, Luis E. & Cardona-Sosa, Lina & Pedraza-Jiménez, Nataly, 2021. "The use of credit cards among low- and middle-income individuals in Colombia and the channels of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 150-169.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank lending channel of monetary policy; bank credit; real effects; credit register; developing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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