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The fundamentals of safe assets

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  • Habib, Maurizio Michael
  • Stracca, Livio
  • Venditti, Fabrizio

Abstract

We study what makes government bonds a safe asset. Building on a sample of monthly changes in government bond yields in 40 advanced and emerging countries, we analyse the sensitivity of yields to country specific fundamentals interacted with changes in global risk (VIX). We find that inertia (whether the bond behaved as a safe asset in the past) and good institutions foster a safe asset status, while the size of the debt market is also significant, reflecting the special role of the US. Within advanced and emerging markets, drivers are heterogeneous, with external sustainability in particular being relevant for the latter countries after the global financial crisis. Finally, the safe asset status does not appear to depend on whether the change in global risk is driven by financial shocks rather than by US monetary policy.

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  • Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:102:y:2020:i:c:s0261560619305650
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102119
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    Cited by:

    1. Ly Dai Hung & Nguyen Thi Thuy Hoan, 2022. "International Capital Flows When Safe Assets Scarcity Matters," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(2), pages 151-167, December.
    2. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Hoang, Yen Hai & Ngo, Vu Minh & Bich Vu, Ngoc, 2023. "Central bank digital currency: A systematic literature review using text mining approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Beirne, John & Sugandi, Eric, 2023. "Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Petrovskiy, Alexander, 2024. "Hedging and safe haven assets dynamics in developed and developing markets: Are different markets that much different?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Akbari, Amir & Carrieri, Francesca, 2023. "Global risk and market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 51-70.
    7. Janus, Jakub, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and long-term interest rates in emerging market economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    8. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    10. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2021:y:2021:i:2:id:561 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Janus, Jakub, 2022. "Cross-border flights to safe assets in bond markets: evidence from emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 113875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Janus, Jakub, 2023. "Flights to safe assets in bond markets: Evidence from emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Ondřej Šíma, 2021. "The effect of the international movement of the factor of production (capital and labor) on the balance of primary incomes [Vliv mezinárodního pohybu výrobního faktoru kapitálu a práce na bilanci p," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 27-45.
    15. Igor M. Stepnov & Yulia A. Kovalchuk, 2020. "Measuring value created by business models in the sharing economy," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 11(5), pages 58-69, November.
    16. Graziano, Marco & Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2024. "Mutual funds and safe government bonds: do returns matter?," Working Paper Series 2931, European Central Bank.
    17. Özmen, Erdal & Taşdemir, Fatma, 2021. "Gross capital inflows and outflows: Twins or distant cousins?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    18. Bettendorf, Timo & Jochem, Axel, 2021. "What drives the German TARGET balances? Evidence from a BVAR approach," Discussion Papers 12/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Cheng, Xin & Chen, Hongyi & Zhou, Yinggang, 2021. "Is the renminbi a safe-haven currency? Evidence from conditional coskewness and cokurtosis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    21. Jay Cullen, 2022. "“Economically inefficient and legally untenable”: constitutional limitations on the introduction of central bank digital currencies in the EU," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 31-41, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Safe assets; Global risk; Fundamentals; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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