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Gauging Employment: Is the Professional Wisdom Wrong?

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  • George C. Perry

    (Brookings Institution)

Abstract

The two standard monthly measures of employment growth, one from a survey of payrolls and the other from a survey of households, often differ substantially, and the payroll measure is widely regarded as the more reliable. This paper questions that preference and concludes it is not supported by the data. Reviewing a number of nonsampling problems inherent in the two series, the paper argues that the biggest problem may be the payroll series’ need to account for the birth and death of business establishments. The paper then examines how well each employment measure tracks contemporaneous changes in output and unemployment. As a further test, it also compares simple aggregate employment functions using the two series. On balance, all these tests suggest that averaging the employment change from the two series provides the best estimate; further tests show that this average outperforms either series alone.

Suggested Citation

  • George C. Perry, 2005. "Gauging Employment: Is the Professional Wisdom Wrong?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2), pages 285-321.
    • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:36:y:2005:i:2005-2:p:285-321
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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