How Inflation Targeters (Can) Deal with Uncertainty
The paper argues that a well-designed methodology for dealing with uncertainty improves the quality of interest-rate decisions taken by inflation targeters. A well-planned methodology is also more easily communicated to the general public, and the subsequent greater transparency makes inflation targeting more efficient. Therefore, it is relevant for an inflation targeter to consult with or consider information from other inflation targeters, researchers, and relevant decision makers when designing or improving upon their methodology. The paper also summarizes the results of a recent survey on methods for dealing with uncertainty for inflation targeters. The results are presented in a framework designed in line with decision analysis. The paper summarizes which methods are commonly used by inflation targeters and what lessons can be learnt from economic research and from decision makers.
Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7-8 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Katerina Smidkova & Jiri Behounek & Tibor Hledik & Josef Jilek & Miroslav Kostel & Ivana Matalikova & Dana Rottova & Jana Stankova, 1998.
"Koruna Exchange Rate Turbulence in May 1997,"
Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers
1998/02, Czech National Bank.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997.
"Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets,"
615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998.
"Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2000.
"Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2000-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
- Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005.
"Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
- Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Katerina Smidkova, 2003.
"Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers' Perspective,"
Research and Policy Notes
2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers’ Perspective," Macroeconomics 0304003, EconWPA.
- Alan S. Blinder & John Morgan, 2001.
"Are Two Heads Better Than One?: An Experimental Analysis of Group vs. Individual Decisionmaking,"
130, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Alan S. Blinder & John Morgan, 2000. "Are Two Heads Better Than One?: An Experimental Analysis of Group vs. Individual Decisionmaking," NBER Working Papers 7909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty," Macroeconomics 0310002, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:7-8:p:316-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.