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Through the Looking Glass: Indirect Inference via Simple Equilibria

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  • Calvet , Laurent

  • Czellar, Veronika

Abstract

This paper proposes an indirect inference (Gourieroux, Monfort and Renault, 1993; Smith, 1993) estimation method for a large class of dynamic equilibrium models. The authors' approach is based on the observation that the econometric structure of these systems naturally generates auxiliary equilibria that can serve as building blocks for estimation. They use this insight to develop an accurate estimator for the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron (2004). The authors demonstrate the accuracy of our method by Monte Carlo simulation and estimate the long-run risk model on U.S. data. They also illustrate the good performance of the methodology on an asset pricing model with investor learning.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvet , Laurent & Czellar, Veronika, 2013. "Through the Looking Glass: Indirect Inference via Simple Equilibria," HEC Research Papers Series 1048, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1048
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    2. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Czellar, Veronika & Frazier, David T. & Renault, Eric, 2022. "Approximate maximum likelihood for complex structural models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 432-456.
    4. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2018. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 6-33.
    5. Gael M. Martin & Brendan P.M. McCabe & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Christian P. Robert, 2016. "Auxiliary Likelihood-Based Approximate Bayesian Computation in State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 09/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. David T. Frazier & Eric Renault, 2016. "Indirect Inference With(Out) Constraints," Papers 1607.06163, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    7. Lee, Minjoon, 2023. "Portfolio allocation over the life cycle with multiple late-in-life saving motives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Alperovych, Yan & Cumming, Douglas & Czellar, Veronika & Groh, Alexander, 2021. "M&A rumors about unlisted firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1324-1339.
    9. Czellar, Veronika & Frazier, David T. & Renault, Eric, 2021. "Approximate Maximum Likelihood for Complex Structural Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1337, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Claude Bergeron & Tov Assogbavi & Jean-pierre Gueyie, 2020. "Conditional capital asset pricing model, long-run risk, and stock valuation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 77-86.
    11. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFS Working Paper Series 572, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Grammig, Joachim & Küchlin, Eva-Maria, 2017. "A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model," CFR Working Papers 17-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Jules Tinang & Nour Meddahi, 2016. "GMM estimation of the Long Run Risks model," 2016 Meeting Papers 1107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Forneron, Jean-Jacques, 2024. "Detecting identification failure in moment condition models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    15. Czellar, Veronika & Garcia, René & Le Grand, François, 2025. "Uncovering asset market participation from household consumption and income," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    16. Veronika Czellar & David T. Frazier & Eric Renault, 2020. "Approximate Maximum Likelihood for Complex Structural Models," Papers 2006.10245, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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