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Why Did the Welfare Caseload Decline?

  • Jacob Alex Klerman
  • Caroline Danielson
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    A substantial literature has considered the effects of welfare reform policies on the aggregate caseload but has been less successful in disaggregating the effects of specific policies. Using monthly caseload data from October 1989 through June 2003, we estimate a flexible model for the dynamic response of the welfare caseload to the economy and to the three major welfare reform policies. Our results are consistent with the predictions of economic theory and indicate the importance of carefully specifying the intensity and dynamics of policy changes and of including a rich set of measures of the economy.

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    File URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/2005/RAND_WR167.pdf
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    Paper provided by RAND Corporation Publications Department in its series Working Papers with number 167.

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    Length: 59 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ran:wpaper:167
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    1. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," NBER Working Papers 8983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rebecca M. Blank, 2001. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 85-118.
    3. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2003. "Some Evidence on Race, Welfare Reform, and Household Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 293-298, May.
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