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Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export

Author

Listed:
  • David Havrlant
  • Roman Hušek

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that influence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the fundamental export factors include foreign demand, domestic and foreign price level and exchange rate. Foreign demand reflects the business cycle of foreign economy, price levels and exchange rate characterize the competitiveness of the exported goods, and the exchange rate determines, among others, the production costs through the prices of imported crucial inputs. Several models are applied to set of these variables, and their impact on the export dynamics of the Czech Republic is evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • David Havrlant & Roman Hušek, 2011. "Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 195-215.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2011:y:2011:i:3:id:396:p:195-215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 1-27.
    2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    3. Zhenhui Xu, 1999. "The exchange rate and long-run price movements in the US and Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 227-230.
    4. Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:prg:jnlefa:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:184:p:05-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rajmund Mirdala & Júlia Ďurčová, 2016. "Priepustnosť menových kurzov nových členských krajín Európskej unie
      [Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in New EU Member Countries]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(4), pages 377-404.
    3. Josef Taušer & Markéta Arltová & Pavel Žamberský, 2015. "Czech Exports and German GDP: A Closer Look," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, pages 17-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export; exchange rate; cointegration analysis; VECM; import; producer and energy prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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