Domestic Saving and Investment Revised: Can the Feldstein-Horioka Equation be Used for Policy Analysis?
Based on the relation between investment and domestic saving proposed by Feldsteinand Horioka (1980) to verify capital mobility, this study performs some exogeneitytests in order to determine the capacity of the FH equation of supporting andimplementing economic policies in Brazil. We then use the result of weak exogeneitytest to identify a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) involving investment andsaving in order to evaluate the effect of exogenous shocks through impulse responsefunctions (IRFs) on both variables. The main findings of this paper are: a) theelasticity of domestic saving estimated using appropriate methods points out to highcapital mobility for Brazil; b) domestic saving is weakly exogenous in the FHequation; c) domestic saving is not strongly exogenous, therefore this equation shouldnot be used to make forecasts for the Brazilian economy; d) superexogeneity isaccepted for domestic saving, meaning that Lucas? criticism does not apply; and e)the IRFs showed that investment is sensitive to contemporaneous innovation onsaving and this effect lasts for a long time. Regarding to domestic saving, the responseof this variable to a non-expected shock on investment has a more is more complicatedescription. Initially domestic saving goes down. After some lags this movementchanges and domestic saving begins to react positively to the shock.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ipea.gov.br
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990.
"Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
- Adolfo Sachsida & Marcelo Abi-Ramia Caetano, 1999.
"The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Revisited,"
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
- Hurn, A S & Muscatelli, V A, 1992. "Testing Superexogeneity: The Demand for Broad Money in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 543-56, November.
- Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997. "Saving-investment correlations and capital mobility: The experience of developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 605-626, December.
- Hussein, Khaled A., 1998. "International capital mobility in OECD countries: The Feldstein-Horioka 'puzzle' revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 237-242, May.
- Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993.
"Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
- Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models," Economics Series Working Papers 99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
- Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990.
"Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation,"
RCER Working Papers
224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, March.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Charemza, Wojciech W & Kiraly, Julia, 1990. "Plans and Exogeneity: The Genetic-Teleological Dispute Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 562-73, July.
- Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Schiavinatto)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.