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Interconexión eléctrica Colombia-Panamá: impacto sobre el precio spot en Panamá

Author

Listed:
  • Jairo Andrés Correa

    ()

  • John J. García

    ()

Abstract

El objetivo de este paper es analizar el impacto que tendría la integración energética prevista entre Colombia y Panamá sobre el precio spot en Panamá. Por medio de un modelo de Vectores de Corrección del Error (VEC) con datos mensuales entre 2000 y 2011 y un análisis impulso-respuesta del comportamiento del precio Spot ante choques de importaciones e incrementos de costos de combustibles de las centrales térmicas en Panamá y exportaciones desde Colombia y un pronóstico del precio Spot entre enero y julio de 2012; los principales resultados muestran que por medio de esta interconexión, Colombia tendría un impacto importante en la reducción del precio de energía Ocasional de Panamá. Esto es, por un aumento de un 1% en las exportaciones de energía de Colombia el precio spot en panamá se reduciría el 12%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jairo Andrés Correa & John J. García, 2013. "Interconexión eléctrica Colombia-Panamá: impacto sobre el precio spot en Panamá," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 010670, Universidad EAFIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:010670
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    File URL: http://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstream/10784/677/1/2013_4_Jhon_Jairo_Garcia.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Sergio Botero Botero & Jovan Alfonso Cano Cano, 2008. "Análisis de series de tiempo para la predicción de los precios de la energía en la bolsa de Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, July.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interconexión Colombia Panamá; Precio Spot; Energía Eléctrica; Vector de Corrección del Error VEC.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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