IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30852.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago

Author

Listed:
  • Monica P. Bhatt
  • Sara B. Heller
  • Max Kapustin
  • Marianne Bertrand
  • Christopher Blattman

Abstract

Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 18:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica P. Bhatt & Sara B. Heller & Max Kapustin & Marianne Bertrand & Christopher Blattman, 2023. "Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago," NBER Working Papers 30852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30852
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30852.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
    2. Sara B. Heller & Benjamin Jakubowski & Zubin Jelveh & Max Kapustin, 2022. "Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It," NBER Working Papers 30170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Richard Berk & Lawrence Sherman & Geoffrey Barnes & Ellen Kurtz & Lindsay Ahlman, 2009. "Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: a high stakes application of statistical learning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(1), pages 191-211, January.
    4. Lawrence F. Katz & Jonathan Roth & Richard Hendra & Kelsey Schaberg, 2022. "Why Do Sectoral Employment Programs Work? Lessons from WorkAdvance," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 249-291.
    5. Christopher Blattman & Julian C. Jamison & Margaret Sheridan, 2017. "Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1165-1206, April.
    6. Clive R. Belfield & Milagros Nores & Steve Barnett & Lawrence Schweinhart, 2021. "Corrigendum to “The High/Scope Perry Preschool Program: Cost–Benefit Analysis Using Data from the Age–40 Followup”," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(3), pages 969-969.
    7. Christopher Blattman & Donald P Green & Daniel Ortega & Santiago Tobón, 2021. "Place-Based Interventions at Scale: The Direct and Spillover Effects of Policing and City Services on Crime [Clustering as a Design Problem]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2022-2051.
    8. Grogger, Jeffrey, 2002. "The Effects of Civil Gang Injunctions on Reported Violent Crime: Evidence from Los Angeles County," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, April.
    9. Sunstein Cass R., 2013. "The value of a statistical life: some clarifications and puzzles," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 237-261, August.
    10. Lochner, Lance & Moretti, Enrico, 2002. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4mf8k11n, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    11. Charles F. Manski, 2019. "Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 296-304, March.
    12. Lance Lochner, 2004. "Education, Work, And Crime: A Human Capital Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 811-843, August.
    13. Guido W. Imbens, 2021. "Statistical Significance, p-Values, and the Reporting of Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 157-174, Summer.
    14. Jeffrey R Kling & Jeffrey B Liebman & Lawrence F Katz, 2007. "Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 83-119, January.
    15. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March.
    16. Robert Haveman & Rebecca Blank & Robert Moffitt & Timothy Smeeding & Geoffrey Wallace, 2015. "The War On Poverty: Measurement, Trends, And Policy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 593-638, June.
    17. George Wood & Andrew V. Papachristos, 2019. "Reducing gunshot victimization in high-risk social networks through direct and spillover effects," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 1164-1170, November.
    18. Desmond Ang, 2021. "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 115-168.
    19. Howard S. Bloom & Larry L. Orr & Stephen H. Bell & George Cave & Fred Doolittle & Winston Lin & Johannes M. Bos, 1997. "The Benefits and Costs of JTPA Title II-A Programs: Key Findings from the National Job Training Partnership Act Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 549-576.
    20. Geller, A. & Fagan, J. & Tyler, T. & Link, B.G., 2014. "Aggressive policing and the mental health of young urban men," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 104(12), pages 2321-2327.
    21. Aaron Chalfin & Benjamin Hansen & Emily K. Weisburst & Morgan C. Williams Jr., 2022. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 139-158, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evans, William N. & Kotowski, Maciej H., 2024. "The demand for protection and the persistently high rates of gun violence among young black males," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    2. James J. Heckman & Bridget Galaty & Haihan Tian, 2023. "The Economic Approach to Personality, Character and Virtue," NBER Working Papers 31258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barham, Tania & Cadena, Brian C. & Turner, Patrick S, 2023. "Taking a Chance on Workers: Evidence on the Effects and Mechanisms of Subsidized Employment from an RCT," IZA Discussion Papers 16221, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Blattman, Christopher, 2024. "Bad medicine: Why different systems of organized crime demand different solutions," SocArXiv ghcpj, Center for Open Science.
    5. repec:osf:socarx:ghcpj_v1 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:osf:socarx:dks29_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo & Nicolas Torres, 2023. "Formal Employment and Organised Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2427-2448.
    3. Hjalmarsson, Randi & Machin, Stephen & Pinotti, Paolo, 2024. "Crime and the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    4. Stephen Machin & Matteo Sandi & Steve Machin, 2024. "Crime and Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 11450, CESifo.
    5. Depew, Briggs & Eren, Ozkan, 2016. "Born on the wrong day? School entry age and juvenile crime," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 73-90.
    6. Sara B. Heller & Anuj K. Shah & Jonathan Guryan & Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan & Harold A. Pollack, 2017. "Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 1-54.
    7. Sara Heller & Harold A. Pollack & Roseanna Ander & Jens Ludwig, 2013. "Preventing Youth Violence and Dropout: A Randomized Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 19014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ward, Shannon & Williams, Jenny & van Ours, Jan C., 2015. "Bad Behavior: Delinquency, Arrest and Early School Leaving," IZA Discussion Papers 9248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. DeMalach, Elad & Schlosser, Analia, 2024. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool: Evidence from the Arab Population in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 18781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5lge9h8e809258uvvpjn34ekm4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lance Lochner, 2010. "Education Policy and Crime," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 465-515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Denis Fougère & Arthur Heim, 2019. "L'évaluation socioéconomique de l'investissement social," Working Papers hal-03456048, HAL.
    13. Janet Currie & Michael Mueller-Smith & Maya Rossin-Slater, 2022. "Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults during Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 525-540, May.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5lge9h8e809258uvvpjn34ekm4 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. David A. Weiner & Byron F. Lutz & Jens Ludwig, 2009. "The Effects of School Desegregation on Crime," NBER Working Papers 15380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. David Deming, 2009. "Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 111-134, July.
    17. Sara B. Heller & Brian A. Jacob & Jens Ludwig, 2010. "Family Income, Neighborhood Poverty, and Crime," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 419-459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2014. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1484-1517.
    19. Chloe Gibbs & Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Does Head Start Do Any Lasting Good?," NBER Working Papers 17452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paolo Buonanno & Leone Leonida, 2006. "Education and crime: evidence from Italian regions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 709-713.
    21. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić, 2011. "The Crime Reducing Effect of Education," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 463-484, May.
    22. Ou, Suh-Ruu & Reynolds, Arthur J., 2010. "Childhood predictors of young adult male crime," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1097-1107, August.
    23. Dos Santos Marcelo Rodrigues, 2012. "Human Capital Formation and Criminal Behavior: The Role of Early Childhood Education," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.